New NEF report indicates UK airport growth and air travel…
A new report, by Dr Alex Chapman of the New Economics Foundation, sets out the real environmental downsides of the growth in flight numbers. It shows that the the sector has no realistic way to cut its carbon emissions. And contrary to the apparent impression given by the industry and the UK government, the economic assumptions that underpin support for growth in air travel are dated and have not been reviewed for some years. Contrary to expectations, growth in business passenger numbers has effectively ceased and new passengers now derive exclusively from the leisure market. Though there are social benefits from flying on holidays or to visit friends and family, these may be largely for a minority – and the negative impacts are felt by far more. The airline sector is one of the poorest job creators in the economy per £ of revenue. Two decades of evidence confirms that air transport growth runs counter to the interests of the UK’s domestic tourism industry, as far more money is taken out of the country than brought into it. The net national effect is a large travel spending deficit which contributes to the UK’s overall current account deficit. There is an urgent need for new, comprehensive UK aviation policy, and assessment of impacts of its future growth. .Tweet Airport expansion does not boost UK growth or productivity – report Researchers argue that industry claims about benefits of more flights should be taken with pinch of salt By Gwyn Topham Transport correspondent (Guardian) @GwynTopham Mon 17 July 2023 Claims that airport expansion will help grow the UK economy should be treated with scepticism, according to a report that finds air travel does not increase productivity or growth. Declining business travel and lower wages in aviation undermine claims made by the industry for the value of increased air connections, say researchers at the New Economics Foundation. A report by the NEF published this week says that despite booming air travel in the past few decades, only one in 12 flights in 2022 was taken for business purposes – half the proportion in 2013 – while the number of associated jobs was lower than in 2007. Wages fell faster in real terms between 2008 and 2022 than in any other UK sector. Far more passengers are flying on holiday abroad than into the UK, with the NEF report finding a £32bn “travel deficit” in net spending between outbound and inbound tourism in 2019. Airports around the UK are seeking to expand, despite the recommendation of the Climate Change Committee that there should be no additional capacity to meet the country’s 2050 net zero targets. Britain’s biggest airport, Heathrow, has permission to build a third runway, although it says the plans are under review. Last week, Gatwick submitted an application to develop a second runway for full-time use. London City, Luton and Bristol are among other airports planning to expand, while terminal redevelopment at Manchester and Birmingham will also bring more passengers. Gatwick says its growth plans would “inject £1bn into the region’s economy every year”, while Bristol claims that extra flights will create up to 5,000 jobs in the region and provide a £430m economic boost. According to government-endorsed figures in the Airports Commission’s report, Heathrow’s runway would add £61bn in growth over six decades. But the NEF report suggests that since the government’s previous comprehensive assessment of the economics of air transport growth, “strong evidence, grounded in government data and academic research, suggests that the economic merit of expanding the UK’s air transport sector has diminished considerably”. It recommends that the government pause all airport expansion until it has conducted a review of the economic evidence and compatibility with policies on climate change and levelling up. Dr Alex Chapman, a senior researcher at the NEF, said: “[The government has] let the air travel industry balloon in size, based on dangerously outdated claims that it is boosting the UK’s economy. The reality is declining business air travel, declining wages for air travel workers, declining job numbers, and declining domestic tourism spending in the UK. And that’s before you consider the rise in noise, air pollution and dangerous emissions.” He said the beneficiaries were “the highly paid executives, the private shareholders and the wea
